The journey from lockdown

We need to figure out how to live with the COVID-19 virus in order to release the global lockdown. Only then can we look at what comes next.

There are currently 4.5 billion people whose movement is restricted by some form of lockdown. It’s likely this situation will continue through to the summer. Thereafter there’ll be a slow return to work, followed by a long climb out of recession.

The challenge with the COVID-19 crisis is that it requires an international governmental response and there are countless unknowns.

Politicians like to throw around the word unprecedented but the warning signs were there for all to see. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Bird Flu outbreaks at the turn of the century were both precursors of a global pandemic.

In the UK a three day simulation exercise called Exercise Cygnus took place in 2016 to consider the potential impact of a pandemic influenza outbreak. The results of this highlighted a shortage of intensive care space, ventilators, personal protective equipment and mortuary space.


Scenario planning

The strategic of role of public relations is to consider interdependent relationships, explore different scenarios and map possible outcomes. Practitioners should be working with stakeholders in their organisation to evaluate its situation.

  1. The PESTLE framework (political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental) is useful to help define a micro or macro environment

  2. Map the uncertainties related to the crisis and how these impact your organisation

  3. Explore likely outcomes and discuss the implication and pathway for each scenario

Two useful documents that help with scenario planning have been published this week: The Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience published by the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard Business Review has an international perspective, while A Sustainable Exit Strategy: Managing Uncertainty, Minimising Harm published by the Institute for Global Change looks specifically at the situation in the UK.

So, what do we know?

We know that COVID-19 is highly contagious. People can carry the virus and infect others without exhibiting symptoms. It has an incubation rate in humans of 7 to 14 days.

We know that a vaccine will take at least 12 to 18 months to develop. It’s an area of huge international effort among healthcare providers.

We know that there isn’t a linear solution based on the experience of countries such as China and Singapore. These countries have released the lockdown only to revert in response to secondary waves of infection.

We know that we need to keep the reproductive number (R) below 1 to contain the virus. This means that everyone that becomes infected virus infects less than one other person.

This has been achieved so far by confining people to their homes. It’s worked. We’ve passed the peak in most European countries.

However, the economic and social implications of the lockdown are brutal. The crisis has widened the socio-economic gap in society. It is clearly not a sustainable solution.

Lockdown in the UK has reduced the R number to around 0.7 according to the Institute for Global Change. The challenge is that this leaves little head room for relaxing restrictions with all other factors being equal.

The Institute for Global Change estimates that opening schools under the current conditions is estimated to increase R to 0.9. If R rises above 1 the spread of the virus will be unpredictable and potentially exponential threatening the ability of healthcare services.


Release: protective equipment, social distancing, testing and tracing, and supported isolation

We understand the tools available to release the lockdown and the effectiveness from the response of different counties around the world. These include protective equipment; social distancing; testing and tracing; and supported isolation.

A challenge that governments face is having an open dialogue with citizens. There isn’t any other topic that anyone wants to talk about however trust is at an all-time low.

In the US the situation is exacerbated by the tension between federal and state government. It has manifested as riots by citizens wanting to release state lockdowns and return to work.

The UK’s response has been daily press conferences. It has published five tests that must be met before the lockdown is released to ensure the spread is under control.

  1. Making sure the health service can cope

  2. A sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate

  3. Rate of infection decreasing to manageable levels

  4. Ensuring supply of tests and protective equipment can meet future demand

  5. Being confident any adjustments would not risk a second peak

The tests provide an indication of the challenges faced, but we can’t know whether these tests have been met without measurable objectives. Currently there is no widespread agreement about the number of people who have died from Coronavirus in England.

We’ve some indication of what’s to come. The UK’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has suggested that social distancing will continue until the end of 2020.

There are a number of variables that government could use to release lockdown. These are likely to include ages, schools, sectors, and geographies.

Imperial College’s Professor Steven Riley discusses the challenges and measures that different countries are taking around the world in this video.


Recovery: organisational responses

Organisations have responded to the crisis in one of four ways. In each case their route out of the crisis will be different.

  • Protect
    The lockdown has had a dramatic impact on entertainment, events, retail, travel and transport. Businesses in these markets have cut costs and sought government help in order to survive the crisis. Here the role for public relations practitioners is planning for once lockdown eases and supporting customers and staff.

  • Adapting
    This is an interesting area in which some organisations have shown strong leadership. Education providers have gone online, wholesalers are selling direct to the public, and manufacturers have retooled production to make safety equipment. Here the role of practitioners is supporting organisations entering new markets.

  • Public information
    Local government, health services and blue light services have redirected all communication to providing public information that supports the government’s response to the COVID-19 crisis. Apps, social media channels and websites have been switched to providing a local context to government guidance. Practitioners have never been busier.

  • Growth
    There are some areas of the economy that have not only proved to be resilient but are experiencing growth through the crisis. These include supermarkets, online retail, telecom and IT providers. The challenge here is to meet new levels of demand without being opportunistic. It’s a fine line to tread.


Reform: society, markets and the state

We already know from the nature of the crisis that it will have an impact on society, markets and the state. These are the areas on which we should be focusing. Resilience, self-sufficiency and safety will become the new lexicon for governments and organisations. A backlash against globalisation seems inevitable.

But there are also opportunities to create a better future. The crisis has given us a renewed appreciation of health workers, people in front line roles, and the scientific community.

In the future organisations will need to get closer to markets and demonstrate their value to society. There’s been a huge wave of innovation in health and technology. The environment is benefiting from a reduction in manufacturing and travel.

Finally, we’ve seen humanity pull together. Communities have been strengthened through the crisis. Let’s hope that continues.


Continuing the conversation

I created a Facebook community of practice last week to explore the future of marketing, media and public relations. 150 practitioners, teachers and academics have joined the conversation. It's inspired by Tortoise Media's model of inviting members and subject matter experts into its newsroom. You’d be welcome to get involved if you’re interested. So far we’ve explored newsprint, the relationship between the media and the Royal Family, post-lockdown planning.

 
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Lockdown letter: humanising business and media